Web Trends of the future - top 10

by Tim Shier

The Internet has changed a great deal about how we communicate; I touched on this in the post I wrote on Quality vs. Quantity a little while back. I like to think that early postmodernists would be proud of the way knowledge and fact are becoming fluid (hmm, I see another blog post here). As information exchange rates increase it’s consistently more difficult to rely on “fact” to remain as, well, fact.

With this increased information exchange rate in mind the time-delays between conceptualisation and successful product rollout are steadily decreasing. It is becoming imperative that either you are able to do product role out within a matter of weeks OR you forecast the trends of the future and take a risk on developing the incorrect product.

I recently read a post by Richard MacManus looking at his 10 future Webtrends. These included:

1. Semantic Web – the way computers interact with each other and the mechanisms supporting information sharing.
2. Artificial Intelligence – providing computers will a level of intelligence.
3. Virtual Worlds – good old Virtual Reality (in games, social settings etc).
4. Mobile Web – developing web content particularly for mobile handsets.
5. Attention Economy – a marketplace where consumers agree to receive products in exchange for their attention onto something else (such as banner advertising and PPC etc).
6. Web Sites as Web Services – Websites are opening their doors to external use i.e. Flickr, Google and others allow 3rd party sites to access their information and utilise their services.
7. Online Video/ Internet TV – YouTube rules supreme (for now) but online TV competitors such as Joost are slowly catching up.
8. Rich Internet Apps – Online Applications which rely on certain standards to provide cross platform applications for the web.
9. International Web – as more of the world goes online the market share will be more evenly distributed.
10. Personalisation – the process of optimising searches (among other online interactions) to benefit the personal preferences of the user.

Of these 10 trends I personally see the biggest area for development within the next years will be numbers 4 (mobile web), 5 (attention economy), 6 (web services) and 8 (rich apps). By the sounds of what's resonating from the Blogosphere there is already a great deal of momentum in their diverse directions.

Google seems to be leading this charge with the much speculated addition to their online arsenal coined the GooPhone. Google seems to be taking

very seriously and as much they should. In South Africa 61% of users access the Internet via their cell phones, a number I expect is FAR higher internationally. As the computing ability of cellular devices continually increases at its blistering rate (Moore’s Law) I foresee that not only will mobile web be a trend to watch but I believe it will replace our existing model of computers and Internet access. Given a couple of years we will run our entire lives through our phones. We will plug them in and out of universal terminals (screen, keyboards etc) and laptops will be replaced by a couple of hundred gram cell phone (can’t wait!)

Attention economy has been in operation for some time. This has been extenuated by the high volumes of information which individuals now need to process. Various techniques of achieving this have been created. Online Advertising (both banners and PPC) looks to play towards this economy but recent copy writing techniques are also exploiting this concept.  Heidi recently wrote a post (Facebook draws a bullseye on your profile) on how Facebook is now optimising for this economy. As the Internet increases in overall popularity this advertising mechanism is becoming more popular and far more accessible. Attention is becoming the online currency; the question is now how to ensure that given the short time the user has they reach your conversion goals and ensure ROI.

Regarding the implementation of web services I have long been waiting for the social networking tools to open up to this. Facebook has begun with its application toolkit but true services will require Facebook and other social networks to allow external sites to access a user’s information (with some level of authentication). Sites go in and out of fashion (ask Lycos) and a single site to bridge the many networking sites users interact with is of increasing need. RSS is the first step on this progression but there are great developments to be seen. The world needs a single portal from which you can access all your favourite sites as if you were logged into each. Again Google are on this with their customisable search pages. It will be some time before the market truly engages with this but when they do the rate of online evolution will skyrocket!

For some time now software vendors have been hinting at and exploring the possible movements to central application serving (i.e. a user of Microsoft Word simply logs into the Microsoft site and gains access to Word – sort of program rental where the application never gets onto the users computer). RIA (Rich Internet Application) is the next generation on this concept and should see software vendors providing online versions of various applications. While this will surely route out many of the illegal pirated users, formal software manufacturers will be hard-pressed to keep pace with the open source think-tanks who are now producing equal, if not better software than some of the giants.

These next 10 years are going to be exciting for everybody in the online game. Life is changing faster than we can possibly comprehend. Staying on the wave now means predicting it from ripples of the ripples – now a primary pillar to a company’s success.

2007/09/25 | permalink | comments (7) | trackbacks (0)

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